I can handle these numbers
I know this is just fanciful dreaming, and this sort of thinking is one reason for the internet bubble in the late 90’s and burst in early 2000…but it’s fun anyway!
Given the following numbers
- According to Engadget the Android market share could hit 14% by 2012
- Current number of smart phones world wide is 235.6 million according to this article from Yahoo
- Android’s market share is currently less then 2% (according to the Engadget article)
I think I can safely make the following pessimistic calculation:
Number of Android Users by end of 2010 = 235.6 * .05 = 11.78 million
If I can get one of my apps in front of another 5% of those Android Users and get 5% of those to buy one for a buck I get:
11.78 million * .05 * .05 * $1 = $29450
Google takes 30% and the rest I get to share with Uncle Sam. In the end I get around $15,000, and although this is far from enough to run a successful software business, it does go a long way to paying back hardware costs and time investments I’ve made in the development of my Android apps. Truthfully, I don’t have HUGE expectations (although I catch myself thinking HUGE at times), and this would be a great addition to my 9-5 revenue.
What these numbers also tell me is that there are three values I have control of, or as much control as I can expect to have…the last two 5%’s and the amount I charge for each app. The first 5 percent is marketing and the second is the quality of my apps. So basically, to generate more revenue I simply have to yell louder and build useful apps that people want…easy, right? OK, maybe not so easy, but at least it’s stuff that I can do, and with practice, get better at.
What numbers would you use? Do you have targets you are shooting for?
